The
bracket was announced Sunday night, and it did nothing but confirm my belief
that this year's tournament is going to be crazy.
Here
are a couple initial random thoughts:
-There
are 10 teams –- Florida, Arizona, Louisville, Michigan State, Virginia, Kansas,
Michigan, Villanova, Duke, Syracuse -- that I think have legitimate shots of
winning it all, but I wouldn't be surprised if none of them cuts down the nets,
given how this year has gone.
-The
Midwest Region is the toughest region in recent memory and has been aptly named
the Region of Death. For going 34-0,
Wichita State got a 1-seed in a group with defending champ Louisville (to whom Wichita State lost in the Final Four last year), Big Ten
regular season champ (and Final Four team last year) Michigan, Duke, and preseason
#1 Kentucky (as an 8-seed, who Wichita State may play in the second game). What a slap in the face to the Shockers. If they make it to Indianapolis (where the
Midwest Region Sweet 16 and Elite 8 games will be held), they are the farthest
from Indy of any of the top 5 seeds in the region.
-The
8/9 game in the West between Gonzaga and Oklahoma State should be really
good. Oklahoma State is underseeded, and
Gonzaga always plays better in the underdog role. Either one can beat Arizona in the next
round.
-The
Big Ten could have four Final Four teams:
Ohio State in the South, Michigan State in the East, Michigan in the
Midwest, and Wisconsin in the West. I'm
not saying it's going to happen. I'm
just saying they could all get to Dallas.
Anyway,
here are a couple lists of five teams each in a few categories that you should
consider when filling out your brackets.
Expect there to be some contradictions, since that's the nature of
predicting the NCAA Tournament. Teams
are in alphabetical order. So you don't
think I'm entirely full of shit, I'll put in parentheses what I correctly
predicted last year.
Teams
with the best shot at winning it all (last year, I correctly put Louisville on
this list):
1. Arizona (1-seed West). In my opinion, Arizona has the toughest Round
of 32 matchup, facing either Gonzaga or Oklahoma State. If they get past that, though, I think they
have pretty smooth sailing to the Final Four.
The Wildcats have been a top 3 team for most of the season, and the
Pac-12 is tougher this year than it has been in years past.
2. Florida (1-seed South). The Gators have a relatively easy path to the
Final Four, and they are as good as any other team in the country. They have only lost twice this season -– by 6
points to Wisconsin in Madison on November 12 and by one point to UConn in
Storrs on December 2. Of course, the SEC
is terrible, so their level of competition hasn't been what it has been in
previous years.
3. Louisville (4-seed Midwest). The defending champs are in the Region of
Death, but they are the reason it's the Region of Death. Louisville has been playing really well the
last few weeks, and many people though they deserved a 1-seed. Assuming, of course, that the Cardinals make
it to the second weekend, as I noted above, Louisville is less than two hours
from Indianapolis, so there will be a lot of Cardinals fans in Indy, which can
only help their chances.
4. Michigan State (4-seed East). If you've watched SportsCenter or any NCAA Tournament-based
shows over the last few days, you know that MSU is the sexy pick to win it
all. While the Spartans (who were ranked
#1 for a few weeks early in the season) stumbled in the middle of the season,
they had some key injuries. Everyone is
healthy now, and Tom Izzo has been to 6 Final Fours.
5. Wichita State (1-seed Midwest). I think the Shockers are very good, and have
the talent and attitude to win it all.
That said, they're not higher on this list for three reasons. First, they are undefeated. They have done a great job thus far of not
letting that affect their playing, but this is the NCAA Tournament, not the
Missouri Valley Conference. Expectations
are ramped up, and opponents will be gunning for Wichita State. Second, they are in the Region of Death. Just to get to the Final Four, they likely have
to go through Kentucky, Louisville, and Michigan or Duke. Third, history is not on the Shockers' side. Since seeding began in the NCAA Tournament in
1979, mid-majors (defined relatively loosely as teams not in a "big
6" conference at the time) have been a 1-seed 18 times and a 2-seed 20 times. Only three of those teams have won the
title. Granted, 13 have made it to the
Final Four, but nearly as many (11) have lost in the Round of 32.
Final
Four sleepers (teams seeded 4 or higher) (last year, I correctly put Michigan
and Syracuse on this list):
1. Connecticut (7-seed East). UConn has the talent to knock off Villanova,
Iowa State, and anyone else in that region.
2. Louisville (4-seed Midwest). A 4-seed for the defending champ is a slap in
the face, especially considering how well they played the last few weeks.
3. Michigan State (4-seed East). Like I said above, MSU is now healthy, which
means that the Spartans are more on the 1- or 2-seed level.
4. Ohio State (6-seed South). Never underestimate Thad Matta in March. Ohio State was up and down this year, but
have been playing pretty well the last two weeks. When they are playing at their best, the
Buckeyes are capable of beating Syracuse, Kansas, and Florida.
5. Oklahoma State (9-seed West). Oklahoma State is underseeded, and Marcus
Smart is a game-changing player that can spark the Cowboys to a deep run. If you think a 9-seed can't make it to the
Final Four, consider that 3 teams seeded 8 or higher have made the Final Four in
the last 3 years.
Teams
seeded 4 or lower who may not make it to the second weekend (last year, I
correctly put Kansas State and New Mexico on this list):
1. Duke (3-seed Midwest). 'Cause fuck Duke.
2. Syracuse (3-seed South). Syracuse is a boom-or-bust tournament
team. The Orange will likely meet Ohio
State in the Round of 32, and the Buckeyes are more than capable of winning
that game.
3. UCLA (4-seed South). This year, UCLA has a tough draw in the first
weekend, with Tulsa in the Round of 64 and either VCU or Stephen F. Austin in
the Round of 32. Steve Alford hasn't
coached a team to the Sweet 16 since his last season at Southwest Missouri
State in 1999. Since then, he is 3-6 in
the NCAA Tournament and has never beaten a team seeded lower than his team.
4. Villanova (2-seed East). Villanova is capable of going to the Final
Four or losing in the second round to UConn or St. Joseph's.
5. Wisconsin (2-seed West). The Badgers are the Minnesota Twins of
college basketball. They always play
well (some might even say they overachieve) in the regular season, but can't
quite seem to get it done in the NCAA Tournament. Wisconsin has made the NCAA Tournament in
each of Bo Ryan's 13 seasons as head coach.
Out of the previous 12 visits under Ryan, they have made it as far as
the Elite 8 once (2005) and to the second weekend only five times. Under Ryan, the Badgers have been knocked out
of the Tournament by higher seeds 5 of the last 7 years.
Teams
seeded 12 or higher with the best chance of pulling an upset in the first round
(last year, I correctly put Cal, Mississippi, and Oregon on this list):
1. Harvard (12-seed East). The Crimson only lost four games this season,
and two of those were to UConn and Colorado (two tournament teams). They also won a game in last year's NCAA
Tournament, so they have the experience.
Also, they're wicked smaht.
2. NC State (12-seed Midwest). The Wolfpack has been playing well as of
late, and they have ACC Player of the Year T.J. Warren, who just broke the NC
State single-season scoring record. I
think they have a pretty decent shot at knocking off St. Louis, who has kind of
faltered the last few weeks.
3. Stephen F. Austin (12-seed South). The Lumberjacks are 31-2 and have won 28 in a
row.
4. Tulsa (13-seed South). The Golden Hurricane –- coached by former
NCAA Tournament MOP Danny Manning –- play UCLA.
See the previous section.
5. Western Michigan (14-seed South). The Broncos play Syracuse in the Round of
64. Syracuse will either beat them by 20
or lose.
Go
forth.
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